Results from the national tracking poll on the generic congressional race held steady this week, still showing Democratic candidates with a wide margin over Republican candidates. Voters also answered questions about their most important issues for this midterm election, and their thoughts on the immigrant caravan and healthcare coverage for pre-existing conditions. 

Contact: Emily Gersema, (213) 361-6730 or gersema@usc.edu; or Ron Mackovich, (213) 740-6156 or ronald.mackovich@usc.edu

The latest weekly results from the USC Dornsife/LA Times tracking poll indicate very little change in the generic congressional race. Among likely voters, Democratic candidates have a 15-point edge over Republicans compared to last week's margin of 17 percentage points.

There is also a probabilistic model which weights respondents on the basis of their likelihood of voting. Someone who says they are 25 percent likely to vote in this election has only a quarter as much impact on the outcome as someone who says that they are 100 percent likely.

The probabilistic model shows a Democratic lead of 10 percentage points, 52 percent to 42 percent. The poll is testing this method of forecasting — which has performed well in two previous presidential elections — for use in the midterms. Both methods of measuring the generic vote will be evaluated after the election to determine how well they forecast poll respondents’ actual votes.

This is the final weekly update for the tracking poll, which began on Oct. 14. 

The tracking poll is a probability survey based on a panel of respondents who participate in the Understanding America Study by USC Dornsife's Center for Economic and Social Research. The tracking poll includes results from questions on the generic congressional race, repeated weekly, as well as other topics, including which issues voters consider their top concerns in casting their ballots, as well as whether voters have an opinion on news of the caravan of immigrants that is slowly moving north through Mexico.  

[Graphics by Dennis Lan, USC Dornsife]

As of Nov. 3, 46 percent of likely voters participating in the poll had completed early ballots while 54 percent had not yet voted.

The above results on early voting have a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

Before answering the above question, likely voters were asked to say which, out of 16 issues, was the most important factor in deciding whom to vote for Congress. 

The top five issues for likely voters, in order of rank, were: health care, economy and jobs, taxes and spending, local/state issues and "opposition to the other party's candidate."

The ranking marks a slight change from voters' responses to the poll in September, when they had listed the economy and jobs as their top issue, followed by health care, taxes and spending, handling immigration and local/state issues.

"President Trump has not managed to replace issues like health care and the economy with other issues, like immigration," said Robert Shrum, director of USC Dornsife's Center for the Political Future, which co-sponsors the poll. 

Trump has said the election is a referendum on him as a leader, but, "it could be that he is the second-most important issue," Shrum said.

Trump has said the election is a referendum on him as a leader, but, "it could be that he is the second-most important issue," Shrum said.

The poll of likely voters shows that 44 percent say their vote is an expression of opposition to Trump, vs. 31 percent who say their vote is a sign of their support for him. Twenty-six percent say their vote shows neither support nor opposition for him.

In another question, only 1 out of 4 voters said that their view of Trump is a more important factor in their vote than their view of candidates running for office in their state.

Most voters say they have heard or read about the caravan that has been moving north through Mexico.

The poll surveyed residents about the generic congressional race, whether they approve of President Donald Trump and whether they prefer a  Democratic agenda under House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) vs. a Republican agenda under Trump. Both agendas were composites created from various statements made in recent campaign ads. Additional information about the poll is here.

A total of 4,711 adult residents consented to participate in a series of three USC Dornsife/LA Times polls prior to the midterm elections, Of those, 3,936 participated in this latest round of the tracking poll, including 2,521 likely voters. The respondents are U.S. residents and members of USC Dornsife's Center for Economic and Social Research’s Understanding America Study, a probability-based internet panel. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points for all respondents and for likely voters.

The USC Dornsife/LA Times poll is a partnership of The Los Angeles Times and two institutions of the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences: the Center for the Political Future and the Center for Economic and Social Research. For more information about the Center for Economic and Social Research Understanding America Study internet panel, visit https://uasdata.usc.edu

The following experts at USC Dornsife who lead the poll are available for interviews upon request:

• Robert Shrum, director of the Center for the Political Future
• Michael Murphy, co-director of the Center for the Political Future
• Jill Darling, survey director of the Center for Economic and Social Research

To arrange an interview with experts about the poll, please contact Emily Gersema, (213) 361-6730 or gersema@usc.edu

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